TWT 0.00% 1.0¢ twt group limited

great report, page-5

  1. 51 Posts.
    Nice figures, but lets look at the negatives:

    1) Margins have decreased and sales are expected to drop.

    Lets be pessimistic and say sales drop by 50% over the next financial year (back to 06/07 levels), while the cost pressure remains high and therefore margins remain at 07/08 levels. This pessimistic state of affairs would still leave a profit of more than 3.4 mill - and a PE of about 4.5 at a 30c share price.

    2) Dividend is not locked in yet.

    Lets again be pessimistic and say that no dividend is payed this year. I'm not sure why it would not be, but directors (indirectly) hold about 80% of the stock, so I think it would be fair to say that whatever dividend policy is eventually decided on will be in long term shareholders interests. If they did pay the same 3.5 cent dividend as last year, this would obviously be a yield of 10% at a share price of 35 cents (and 35 cents is 34% higher than the last trade)

    Against all this is the fact that CURRENT assets are higher than TOTAL liabilities by about $17 mill - or 31 cents per share.

    So the only REAL negatives about the stock that I can see are 1) sovereign risk, and 2) ...good luck getting any meaningful amount of shares. The directors escrow period ends in April 09, but I doubt if they'll be keen to give away the company they've been building up since 1989 at these sort of prices.
 
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