IMO if they show a smaller number more people will question the whole PE logic.
540*0.9*0.9*0.9=393
393/15*35=917 (WPL NPV assuming FAR numbers)
2019 WPL spend guess 50 mill (high because FEED)
917*0.9-50=776
2018 WPL senegal spend 26 mil (annual report)
776*0.9-26=673
2017 WPL spend 112 mil (WPL annual report high because drilling)
673*0.9-112=493
2016 wpl post purchase spend to year end 43 (annual report summed with purchase price)
493*0.95-43=423 (half discount rate due to mid year purchase)
WPLs 2016 purchase price price =440 mill.
Now we can argue a different starting point, WPL will have different interest costs, but I actually feel I've been conservative on FEED costs. And I've been generous by assuming all spend is at start of year not discounting that throughout the year.
I was shot down on this forum when I suggested based on my spreadsheets WPL may have overpaid (yes I was slightly off, but not by much), adjusting for interest rate they probably pretty close to hitting the NPV10 square on the head at purchase price. Kind of blows back room deals with COP theory out of the water and looks like a fair price was paid...
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