back to 60 bucks in a few months, page-24

This is where I think you are in significant error find8.

And this is what I explained yesterday.

The movements of the $USD IS NOT a very signigicant factor in the movement of the price of oil.

Oil can do whatever it wants
The USD can do whatever it wants.

What you will be seeing is what traders do to oil and what traders do the USD with only some effect on each.

Here is Oil monthly returns compared the USD monthly returns:



If the USD was the denominating factor in the price of Oil, those data points would form a perfect line.

Its anything but a perfect line.

Its P-Statistic is about the significant value of 0.05

The USD is not a significant component.


Intercept: 0.010637357
Slope: -0.498554021
SD: 0.263279976
P Value: 0.059623582
T Stat: -1.893626811