Ann: Two Million Dollar Month, page-129

I've just had time to add the latest information from the company into my monthly BTM sales records.

These reflect every bit of information on BTM sales that Polynovo have released since July 2017 - but that only some of the monthly values are actual values given from the company. The rest are interpretations from graphical information, or guesses at monthly data based on quarterly or half yearly values.

For example, I recorded Dec 2019 (M30) as $2.001m to reflect the "just over $2m" from Paul Brennan. This figure with the previous 5 months had to total the $8.57m given for the half-year - so I set the 5 previous months sales at 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4 & 1.57 million.

The purpose of getting as much of this monthly data, as near as possible to the actual values, is to enable me to map out the trend. Whether or not each month is then exactly correct doesn't make a lot of difference to the trendline.

Here is that data in graphical form:


(For those into this sort of thing, I've modelled the data here with a second degree polynomial which gives an R^2 of 0.87 - a pretty good fit.)

The numbers from PNV yesterday showed (for the last 6 months) a slowdown in growth rate compared to the last 3 months of FY2019 - but as you can see from the graph, the trend is without doubt, upward.

I think Paul Brennan hinted at this slow down in rate of growth in the release, but then went on to say "we expect an acceleration in sales" in the near term.

My guess is that the rate of growth of sales slowed down for a few months because Polynovo were not able to add new staff fast enough to keep the earlier rate of growth going. With this problem resolved, the growth rate could indeed accelerate again.

As it stands, this model projects sales of $21.1m in FY20 and $37.3m in FY21.

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