You'd expect advisor platform volume to be incremental. I don't know how much to expect from it though. Hopefully they break down the split (otherwise we would not even have like-for-like numbers for the retail brokerage side of things).
At end of Oct, there were 80 advisors registered. Say each of them got 10 clients signed up, and made the usual (retail) rate of 1.45 trades per trader per month (my own metric). That would be an extra 1000+ trades per month from advisors so far. I'm expecting 80-90,000 retail trades or so this quarter (seasonal low, but still with single digit growth in trades), plus say 2000-5000 from advisors is a 4% incremental boost to trades from advisors. I'd expect that proportion to rise over time, but that's my initial very rough estimate.
A 4% boost to trades, and maybe the same to client balances would be a fairly good start. Then advisor platform can continue to grow in a few relatively easy ways: signing up more dealer groups, getting more of the already partnered groups' advisors signed up, getting the registered advisors using the platform more and getting more of their clients online.
To compare to the ETF:
ETF is currently at a $30k PA run rate.
Advisors could be at a $200k+ PA run rate, from my very rough estimate.
Both are similarly aged. Both would have mostly finished their dev costs, and just have relatively lower costs in front of them for marketing and upkeep. I'd guess that advisor platform could already be cashflow positive, with the ETF being a cash drain currently.
It sure looks like advisor has the easier road ahead, and ETF having the slower road (maybe more passive - allowing it to run and accumulate more data and inflows, while the name becomes more well known).
If I'm right that it's a 4% boost to revenue, then that's fairly good, and should make a dent in the group fixed costs, once the division fixed costs are overcome. (eg. assume the ETF costs $150k per year to run, and that advisor platform costs $200k to run - for fees, upkeep, education and marketing. Maybe I'm underestimating, but you get the picture. Advisor seems closer to covering its own costs.)
Was it announced somewhere that the quarterly is due on Monday? I was estimating Friday or Monday release, based on last year's announcement on 11 Jan.
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