"function of value and fit"... obviously the two didn't work for Centamin, they are on record as saying the worsening BF situation was a concern. They were always on the hunt for diversification imo, and everyone knows it makes so much sense to get bigger and liquid for higher pricing multiples, especially in Africa. Fingers crossed that Ghana ticks their risk profile, would make a great operator.
" 'value-accretive' tends to be used in acquisition of producing assets"... not sure how you figure that only producing assets are value accretive. Surely value-accretive refers to the value you get vs the price you pay. Now that can be spun many ways to suit but short of subjective exploration upside or synergies etc, the industry standard arbiter of value is NPV. Unless a company is desperate for cashflow or can't afford to develop a new mine I'd rather buy Namdini NPV at 25c in the dollar than a shorter LOM producer for 75c in the dollar (remember capex cost is included in NPV calculations). IMO Centamin would be looking for cheap, long life, large ounce deposits, that drives meaningful production growth and leverage to the gold price more than merging with much more expensive producers ($/Oz). Having balance sheet strength puts them at a distinct advantage shopping for development projects as most others can't afford to play.
I'm agnostic as to who does the TO at this stage so long as my punt that value will be released through corporate action comes to fruition. A little too much funkiness at board level to maintain the love. Centamin has Endeavour off their back and are now back in the game, RSG have flagged they are on the WA hunt and sold down assets to prove it. PRU may or may not be interested but bring it on. Everyone's biggest fear not long ago was no date for the prom and our share price reflected that risk. Again, I personally don't care much who it is, beggars, choosers and all that.
Bring on the EPA permit. To me the whole situation feels like it's turned and the M&A ducks are lining up for CDV with some competitive tension. Get big or get out of West Africa is the go I reckon. Guess the market agrees, creeping up nicely.
CDV Price at posting:
37.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
