wa election update

For what it's worth, have just done a review of the state of the count this afternoon....for the WA state electiton.

For uranium stocks and investors in them, the result will have significant implications.

From the information I could put together from the WA Electoral Commission (WAEC)website and the ABC election website and broadcasts and not knowing the preference deals that could impact on the individual seats, I see three possible scenario's emerging.....

The first
Nats 4
ALP 25
LIBS 26
IND 4

The second
NATS 4
ALP 24
LIBS 27
IND 4

The third
NATS 4
ALP 24
LIBS 28
IND 3

The seat of Alfred Cove depends on which way the greens preferences go, it will go to either the Independent or LIB

I think Forrestfield is too close to call and will be either ALP or LIB

I think the ALP will win Collie-Preston

I think the LIBS will win Albany but only just
Of the other seats that the ABC website has in doubt, I think the LIBS will win Morley, Nedlands, Riverton, Southern River and Wanneroo.

The WAEC website has Kwinana being retained by the ALP but in The West newspaper, Carol Adams the IND has been referred to as the newly elected member.

In the review I did I looked at the increased votes allocated to each candidate in the "seats in doubt" page of the WAEC website between the close of counting on Saturday night and when I did the review this afternoon from the updated WAEC website and then forecast the likely changes to the vote based on potential outstanding postal votes as well as the likely distribution of preferences ( hard to do with the independents of course).
From past experience, the postals generally favour the LIBS but depends on the effort put in by individual candidates.
In the seat which I think is too close to call, I allocated a win in scenario 1 to the ALP and to the LIBS in scenario 2.
In scenario 3 I allocated a win to the LIBS in the seat of Alfred Cove where as in scenario 1 and 2 I allocated a win to the Independent.
As I understand it, Liz Constable, the IND in Churchlands is a supporter of the LIBS and the IND who won Kalgoorlie is a supporter of the ALP.
Nedlands looks like being a LIB win but if the Independent wins she is a former LIB ( which I assume she would support the LIBS unless they really upset her).
So if scenario 3 pans out, the LIBS need the other IND to form a government without the NATS but I'd assume the NATS want to see uranium mining supported so I can't see them going with the ALP ( and for many other reasons which I mentioned in a previous post on the Uranium threads).
If scenario 1 or 2 pans out, the Nats will form a government with the LIBS , if they didn't, their members would have their leader Brendan Grylls for toast and would effectively see the end of the NATS in WA.
I could very well have the wrong figures but they are just my thoughts based on more than a few years analyzing political strategy and elections.
PS, the ABC website has just changed the Nedlands seat from being in doubt to being won by the LIBS as I expected.
Will be interesting to see how the other forecasts turn out but either way, the LIBS will be the government from what my figures show. The question is whether they form it with the support of two independents or if the NATS leader has half as much intelligence as he looks to have , he'll make an early deal with the LIBS or he could miss out on more than he bargained for but he does have a position of strength given that the LIBS will be worried about one of the Independents changing their minds which is another story.
Uranium stocks should get some juice in the tank as the week evolves and the likely outcome becomes more certain. I have WA uranium via explorer MXR and a few GPNOB.
cheers Fatstocks.