RoughballparktheirFY20revenuewillbearound$21million.Beyondthatitishardtosay.Itwoulddependonhowwelltheirherniaproductssell.TheytoldusthattheirH1revenueisuparound130%overlastyear.TheDecember2milliondollarmonthwasalsoupbythesameamount.StartingwithaFYrevenueof9.3mlastyear,a131%increasewilltakerevenueto19.8million.
AnotherwaytoarriveattheFY20figureistakingtheaveragemonthlyrevenueinthesecondhalfoftheyearas2.5million(assumingeverymonththeymakemorerevenuethanthepreviousmonth-thisisimpliedincompanypresentations).2.5x6+9.3=24.3million.ThisbringstheFYrevenuegrowthrate161%andIthinkisprobablythehighestitcangowithouttheherniaproductsales.
Evenata$24millionrevenue,themarketcapis62timestherevenue!!!FPH(whichalreadytradesataveryhighPE)hasamarketcapofaround11timestherevenue.
Idon'tknowthesizeofthemarket.Ifmanagementistobebelievedthereisa$1bmarket.Ifthisfigureistobetakenasbeingtrue,thenextquestionishowmuchofthemarketcantheyrealisticallytake.Iftheycouldtake20%inthenext2to3years,thenwecouldstillseesomemeaningfulSPappreciationintheyearstocome.
IftheherniaproductscanstartaddingasimilarrevenuethenthecurrentSPisgreatforbuying.
IhaveboughtatinypositionintothecompanysoIcanmonitortheannouncementsandgetabetterpictureofwhatsgoingon.Iampreparedforthisthingtodropupto50%overnonewsandviewthecompanyvaluationasveryhighrisk.
Ann: 2019 AGM Recording, page-87
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Last
$2.35 |
Change
0.020(0.86%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.623B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $2.27 | $2.37 | $2.27 | $3.035M | 1.301M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 26580 | $2.35 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $2.37 | 12054 | 2 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 09/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| PNV (ASX) Chart |