I think it's pretty simple folks.....and not something I would say is attributable to a ' Gut Feel '.
Reason : We know that Quebec ' Owns ' the Debt of NAL to the tune of $80.479 million. So we would then conclude this would continue in the ' Status Quo ' in so far as No Interest or Low Interest continuing Terms. This would not at all be a problem a we already know the operations is capable of producing final product through it's Concentrator and doesn't necessarily have to wait for Authier to be excavated. This part of the proposal is obviously tailored for the 'Continuous ' improvement and ongoing longer term profitability for the NAL operations.
We also know that CATL who jumped fairly quickly over to Pilbara Minerals ( PLS )
with their A $55 million placement at A 30 cents per share ,, has remained very tight-lipped about the whole NAL affair. With circa A $57 million obviously at stake in ' Convertible ' debt , I would re-state my previous supposition and statements that the WHOLE deal will be structure more along the lines as a Merger with SYA perhaps with the controlling interest , and CATL agreeing to converting it's current convertible securities into this new Corporate Structure.
This would largely explain to me the reasons why SYA has not done much more than position itself with ' Establishment fee lending structures with both Acutity and Obsidian. Because if you think about it and if SYA was genuinely pitching for the acquisition of these NAL distressed assets , they would have ought to have put more together in terms of proposed funding options given we had been only one week out from the initial closing dates for ALL ' unconditional ' BID's .
So to me the timing given that we now have only until Tuesday 14th April following the public holiday on Easter Monday to PAY or wrap up the proposed $2.750 million TOTAL convertible facility with Obsidian. So in my opinion this s date would now more align itself with the all important remaining raising capacity's of our 7.1 (15% ) and (10% ) 7.1 A placement together with or proceeding a potentially larger rights issue which in my opinion would definitely be required and needed over and above that which has been set up or put in place thus far ( re Acuity / Obsidian ).
If indeed CATL is willing .....and I don't see any reason why it wouldn't want to convert it's existing A $57 million into a ' NEW ' SYA Led Lithium Venture ; then everything in my view would be still on the table. Who knows, maybe given the timing , they may even consider ' underwriting ' the OB's as part of their overall agreed package when the time comes.
Of course I'm not saying we would get to this price point in one fell swoop , as I have already indicated there would be other obvious ' Hop's, ' Steps' , and ' Jumps ' along the path . But definitely I could see a CATL or the like perhaps agreeing to this strategy should we be close.
Bottom line though , and as already stated , it does not look like it will be the result of a ' straight up ' winning Bid for some distressed assets. Because clearly SYA has not done enough in my opinion to show it is capable of t' Materializing ' the full requirements of the financial end of matters.
I do like the ' Lithium Triangle ' analogy - because it doesn't matter if we view the distance between the Authier Minesite , Amos , and NAL's La Corne Concentrator as an Isosceles or Equilateral Triangle - the distance shoul there be a ' Made ' road access directly from Authier deposit to La Corne would be less than half the distance the overall required distance for transport. Maybe this is why they have referenced in their ' sustainability ' proposals the creating of ' Road Base ' materials.
This may be rather fanciful given there would be a further requirement to ' Barge ' Vehicles with Spod materials across water and / or wetlands , however I do like the idea shown by the famous Ice Road Trucker's .....
I also like the uncertainties shown in the trading of the OTC DMNXF's. Like for instance on Friday when an Investor was prepared to pay up in late day trading as high as 1.85 cents ( A $ 2.681 cents ) on 50,000 units ( over 30% up...
) ...before settling back only 1.43% up at 1.42 cents on 220,000 of closing volume.
These variances in BID / ASK's and the increasing frequency of the unwillingness or unpreparedness to SELL tells me that something is definitely developing around the interest in the SYA projects given this ' to and froing ' around the price discovery which appears very evident and evolving more and more around the otherwise previous benign trading . In other words , it's waking up.......
(20min delay)