The stockpile from Syama underground of around 400k tonnes will only be able to somewhat protect the share price going forward if they can keep it replenished, because what people will be looking at is the amount of ore actually mined - ie if the Moose was not BS in the conference call they should be able to mine near to the full planned capacity of 600k tonnes in the March quarter (but I would be happy to at least see 550k tonnes mined).
Lets hope the cost of the ore mined is around USD20/t as specified in the DFS, and that they actually report this cost in the quarterly report. Last quarter the cost was $AUD98.07/t or USD66.00/t (I am basing this figure on reported tonnes processed rather than tonnes mined, which would bring the cost down a lot but still far from an acceptable level).
But there seems to be another cost that has really blown out in the last few of years and that is the site admin costs, which for Syama sulphides and oxides totaled around $AUD75.1m (USD50.6m). This cost ate up around 39,935 ounces of gold from those two operations (based on a sell price of $AUD1881/ounce). If this level of outlays for site admin costs continues going forward I can not see how they would meet their target AISC for Syama of USD960/ounce on 260k forecast output.
They are forecasting total AISC of USD249.6m in 2020. Once you deduct the site cost of USD50-6.1m the remaining cost amount to $USD199m, which comes to USD765/ounce. IMO that figure will not be achieved in 2020, but may happen if they can get site costs down a lot, have the hybrid electricity generators operating and perhaps source some high grade 5/t ore from Tabakoroni.
My expectation is that JW will be gone this year, perhaps replaced by the new CFO or its former CEO.
The profits from the Mako mine will probably ensure that they stay solvent in 2020.
The shorties are onto this one, and trading the company is going to be dicey.
loki (not sure I am still holding some of these hot potatoes.)
RSG Price at posting:
$1.05 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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