gold, page-65827

We don't even know exactly what the consensus methodology of data reporting on infection is and Chinese changes yesterday had a spike in the cases. On paper, this viral attack is obviously slowing industry globally (supply chain) from functioning as it involves all sovereign manufacturing and consumer base. A better way to be looking for confirmation are the major asset classes. Equity market (US-centric) are going gangbuster including ours which under the circumstance is nothing short of magical! USDCNY had an intra spike yesterday but DXY is extending the lead. Copper trend is still bearish from the start of trade war in 2018 but under the circumstance currently, it is quite impressive on the way it is holding up. Dalian IO P is the most surprising as I was expecting a lot more price drop but it is holding up.

Gold is still trending up and each big rally usually accompanied by consolidation of price which is healthy. Gold fundamentals are very complex and I have tried studying it for years without much correlation to anything substantial. I don't buy this monetary collapse BS which is just poison on the investing perspective.

If under the condition where media starts extrapolating worse case scenarios if the virus drags on and 2/3 of the world gets infected, the more I see this as another buying opportunity in equities. In addition, I am not seeing the opposite of what should have happened, bigger market collapse instead of an intra week sell off/recovery.

Today, I am surprised gold stocks are not doing much with their commodity valuation increasing. i am currently short kiwi$ from their yen cross. Performance wise it is overperforming Aussie to the downside but both are selling off since our economies are much more vulnerable to the virus impact. Scomo is under pressure to be seen to do something to mitigate virus transmission without causing more damage to the sectors under direct hit.

This to me is the Black swan event but whether it is a buying opportunity or the screaming exit is debatable. I support the former obviously.