Looks like a fairly ordinary result to me. Went back to compare to my thoughts after the FY19 results -
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/40054827/singleSeems to me ...
- slight miss on EBITDA% margin (39.4% vs CL1's 40% target)
- a bigger miss on revenue growth (8% vs CL1's 10% target)
- D&A increased a lot ... but still not quite as much as they guided on an annualised basis back in Aug
- Hence ... with extra acquisition costs of $0.5M, NOPAT decreased 30% (rather than the 27% expected by analysts back then) and I'd guess that the 2H will be worse (higher D&A + a full 6 months of costs from the expensive new hires). However, if they pull off 10% revenue increase for the full-year, that would offset these 2H effects.
- Seems Trust product development is going OK, so hopefully some revenue from this in FY21 and beyond.
However, the major issue is the analyst upgrades in Oct19. Somehow without any new info the analysts upgraded revenue growth to a consensus 17% growth a few months ago (which certainly pumped the share price up - was that the purpose?). IMO, this ain't going to be achieved (unless CL1 substantially increases the price on the Super product ... which I think is unlikely). Therefore, will be interesting how the analysts recut their numbers over the next few days.
Anyone listen to the presentation? I missed it - any extra tidbits from that ro the questions?
Any posters part of the Trust trial? If so, your thoughts on it?
All just my take ... and as disclosure, I did a reasonable job of forecasting 1H results .... but I certainly got the SP direction wrong when I sold out post FY19 results!
Cheers and good luck to holders
