LYC: BEVs or bust!, page-5

Indeed.

Fine Print: "The biggest risk to ARK’s forecast is whether or not traditional automakers will be able to scale EV production."

That's the case here, certainly. We don't need that kind of growth, anyway.

We need the whole ROW/ex-China_influence supply chain to expand immediately. Many steps, much fragmentation. Niche suppliers, not mass producers. Missing links, weak links everywhere. Lots of opportunities, and cash is looking for investment.

That's the EV revolution in a nutshell. Old tech out, old thinking out. Mass production in. Simulate the market with subsidy (giving both the more complex manufacturer and more technical supply chain time to develop). Then BOOM. Everyone wants an electric car and is willing to make it work. Nobody wants your used ICE.

I don't think the numbers work from the standpoint of batteries, though opinions vary. Not enough time. Same number by 2030 still a stretch but that would be close to my bet: 30% global sales by 2030. That's 24M EVs per annum in ten years. Average 1 kg NdO per unit above current requirements. That's an additional demand per annum in 2030 of 24,000 tons NdO.

ROW Big Auto, Tesla, ETC will be fighting for their lives to maintain half that market. But if they can manage to retain half at least, that's still a need for 12,000 tons NdO in the ROW and China will be building EVs with their NdO. So where is ROW going to get 12,000 tons of NdO in 2030? Or even just 5,000 tons by 2025? Lynas, that's where. The cash will flow.

Anyway, what's it going to take to move the price is demand. But. Big butt. Until ROW auto sees the necessary REE supply chain strength and security, they will do everything they can to avoid further exposure, especially to drivetrain. It's an existential risk. I wouldn't do it on spec.

Now I'm rambling. Lol. Almost home. GLTA