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Slash -

I dont know about the others but I can say I have stopped and thought about what you are saying - and thought about it at length too

Put simply - yes I have considered whether the selling is just legit holders selling or something else. Have also spent many days watching the price action over the years - too bloody many! And no - of late I have not been watching legit holders exiting.

There was a period between about 15 August and 20 August when even the most ardent supporters either called it quits or substantially reduced exposue. There was volume and price action accordingly. It was frantic and scary - it looked exactly th same as the days of old when she had such dramatic upside moves - except this was in reverse lol.

My reasons for saying that what I have been watching in the last weeks is not simply shareholders calling it quits are several and include that week of capitulation when even the hardest salt encrusted old rower had had a gut full. I know plenty of them and have met plenty - even one old bloke who used to trudge around the bush with MH - reckon he is still on board too and I reckon he will so dissapointed the day they start paying a dividend - because he wont be able to argue with them at the AGM anymore lol

Ok there may be some who got in in reecent weeks and humping ship but they have had ample opportunity to exit without driving price down too much.

I think it is safe to say that unless you have traded this stock heaps and now hold a bucket load that are free carried, to sell today for a profit you either had to buy yesterday or way way way back in March 2005.

Now, if you bought yesterday and sell for a profit today - no problemo good luck and perfectly understandable but today didnt look like seasoned players selling into a rally - far from it.

So that leaves the ones who bought way back on March 05 - having held this long I cant say they would be pressing the sell button now - they have waited this long for production - they have suffered delay after delay and finally we had news the other day that production was iminent (spelling dont care) today it is confirmed - why after waiting this long would they bail? Nup just doesnt make sense.

But you do raise a very interesting point, Slash - a point that I didnt think about previously - the c note holder - hmmmmm

As I proposed previously - figure out why someone is holding it down and it may lead us to who and therefore does it alarm us to added risk or alert us to added reward

Your mentioning the c note holder identified someone who can benefit substantially by keeping the price low - but ONLY if he is convinced the project and company is a going concern!

So maybe its not someone looking for a cheap takeover price keeping the price down - maybe its someone who gets paid in shares - and the number he gets is entirely dependent on the average price over the month!

The C note holder - the number of shares he gets is entirely dependent on the average daily price for the month......go back and look at the stock he has been issued - the amount goes up as the price goes down.

My quick check shows they should have about 4.5 million shares by now????
1,573,693 issued at .96c
758,676 1.99
905,162 1.67
585,928 2.58
683,301 2.21
4,506,760


Notice how as the price goes down they get more shares???


Now if he was just interested in getting his money back he would get a broker to prop the price as he sells on market wouldnt he - oh thats right - price manipulation is illegal and they dont do it - yeah sure roflmo

If you can get a broker to prop a price you can get one to do the opposite too - we've all seen it.

I figure if this months average price is say 50c they will be able to ask for around 3 million shares.

By strategically selling the price down with their 4.5 million shares they can take advantage of general market weakness and the negative sentiment towards CMR and push the price down easily.

In doing so they get some of their capital back and at athe same time set themselves up to get a pooh truck more stock at the next payment time than they would if the price rose

As I see it the key to this little trick is - if you dont think the company will be a goer you would be pushing management to get punters motivated and you would employ a good broker who can prop the price and get you the best price he can - but this bloke has been doing his damndest to get the worst price so that doesnt add up.

If however, you were of the opinion the company IS a goer and the company will pull everything together and make a buck - you would benefit by capping the price so you can get more stock.

Push it down - the lower it is for the month the more stock you get. At the same time you are actually recouping some of your cash by selling some stock on market - pushing the price down is a dangerous game to play unless you truly believe the company will be a goer - if you think its kaput you will want the price proped and money back asap - but if you are convinced all will be sweet it would be very rewarding to push the price down.

Just read that huntleys latest call - oxides cash positive on spot prices so Cornell - the C note holder will be getting paid CASH after next payment so maybe this is the last chance for them to cap her hard keep the price to the lowest daily average for the month that they can so they get maybe 3 or 4 times as much paper as they otherwise would -

They have some of their money back - and will end up with a pooh truck full of shares - once they are set - they let the brakes off - the company becomes cash positive and starts paying back in cash instead of stock. The price rises to multiples of what it is now and the c note holder is holding multiples of what he would have had

I now formally withdraw my conviction that we were to be taken over - not saying it isnt going to happen - it may. But I think if it was, they would have wanted to do it before we started producing. The next best chance would be takeover before they demonstrate cash flow positive. But I now suspect it is the C note holder keeping the price as low so he can so he can get more stock because he knows the company and project will be a goer and he will be sitting on a pooh truck load of stock when the price rises to multiples of what it is now!

Thats a buy in my book