The thing is after such a long down turn that we had if your an investor you must have made your mind up by now right?
Seriously, I think share price wise we have been to hell and back so if you still hold like you and I wouldn't our minds be made up by now?
Nothing is shaking my tree because I have a long term position, I am not looking at tomorrow I am looking a few years around in the horizon.
How many investors out there have actually joined the party late and are currently on sure of the future narrative? If you have please reply because I would really like to learn what you think and why you think that way. I totally understand the traders, shorts and chartists, but its the investor that I would really like to learn more about.
The way I see it is that probably the majority of retail holders out there remaining must be long. If you didn't believe in the long term story surely you must have sold and gotten out by now? Alternatively, you lost faith and only staying in there because selling now and losing it all is probably not that much different so better just hold on for the ride. How many investors out there now that are really ready to just throw in the towel now?
In my mind probably about 5% of trades are happening with inexperienced retail and the 95% other trades are simply a dance between traders and shorts. In between all that you have longs that are just accumulating when they get a chance to take advantage of the situation.
If we go down from here I really believe that it predominately would come from shorts pushing it down or traders realsing that they made a wrong move and selling to possibly get out / buy again at a cheaper price or they are simply playing the chartist game and buying/selling between the signals.
I really think most of the weak hands should have been flushed out by now, otherwise I am really confused about who they are and what they are still doing in this stock.
The only thing I really expect to see is that this stock will dance around thanks to our beloved shorts/traders/chartist until either something big happens like China announcing a heller big stimulus package with EV sector heavily included, or that a few more lithium players go belly up really swinging the pendulum or the pendulum is already balanced and spod stockpiles will eventually deplete and we get back to trajectory in the next 6months or so as planned (or as dictated by this virus).
My own thinking is that this virus situation would hit harder those bigger stocks with the frothy valuations that really move the market (the stocks that I have been spending the last few weeks trimming my positions on to build cash).
Anyway, we must all agree that recent events are interesting and what happens next will definitely be dictated by governments. For those that are inexperienced my suggestion is simply to ensure that you have available cash at hand if needed.
Good luck all.
GXY Price at posting:
$1.03 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
