bear market is over, page-8

Um ... I wasn't saying the bear market was over... I'm on the fence. I was saying that a particular commentator (Bill Cara) was saying it was over, and chucking it up in the air to see what everyone else thinks.

I personally believe, (as Bill Cara says in another post) that the financial index's and the commodities indexes will split, and the former will keep collapsing, while the latter will move into a bull phase.

Hang on ... I"ll try and find the post. ..

"I continue to believe the equity market will split the financials from the non-financials, where the non-financials started a new Bull market on Thursday afternoon, but where the financial stocks will only rally for a time before falling again to test the sector bottom. In time, the financial sector will likely be seen to have missed the first leg of this new Bull because traders know: (i) the balance sheet liabilities of banks are understated and their assets over-stated, and (ii) the central banks that have been coordinating this emergency lending must recover those funds to then restore the health of their own banks and the confidence of government legislators… Home-owners are still beleaguered and consumers are still facing hugely inflated prices and have less purchasing means, so the financial services and consumer discretionary-spending companies will (ultimately prove to) lag.. "

And he says elsewhere that, like me, he is of the view that commodities, energy and so on will resume a bull phase as they disconnect from the more toxic aspect of the market ...

... after all, there's a lot of money sitting on the sidelines in bonds earning amost no interest at all. Sooner or later it needs to re-enter the market. There's nowhere else for it to go (my view) ...

But over all, I'm taking it one day at a time ... who knows where this will all go...