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Ann: Alaska Winter Field Season Update, page-15

  1. 9,176 Posts.
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    Index trading where risk weightings are pushing value lower by the looks of it. Anything liquid is being traded out.
    I understand the market on this but when you consider the actual use of OSH gas industry may slow but electricity generation will continue and long term power generation will be unchanged and OSH have long term contracts with no need to lock in further supply agreements at low gas prices. . Banks will be wary on finance with economy slow but infustructure should be a safe haven with long term outcomes and big partners should have access to lines of credit elsewhere in world as well.

    Employee risk. Isolation can be a positive and a big negative when care is needed. Alaska OK as in USA healthcare but that will quickly become overloaded and travel in travel out employees are all at risk and can bring whole platforms to a halt. PNG has poor healthcare access and virus on locals could be devastating and it can cripple a company quickly as not a lot of employees for a very large operation and reliant on various subcontractors.

    Equipment- project delays - yes possible but depends if large plant manufacturers actually shutdown totally and for how long. .

    Lots of risk as we all know but much of it manageable but with some big unknowns thrown in and then you have fear in the market.

    This is getting very interesting and although I have done it before concentrating my portfolio to a few companies I know well in crisis and going in deep on them with a extended horizon of a couple of years timeline and doing well I am wary this time. Market is being irrational and not pricing in possible worst outcomes yet and deflating this slowly. This can get very nasty very fast with programmed trading and liquidity squeeze. Reallocation to cash ad low risk assets becomes a trend

    Misprinting as it is a commodity based pricing is interesting.

    Large international infustructure funds must really be looking at what point to buy into large back asset companies with long term financed projects and just what discount they can enter at.

    Even consumer based like westfarmers as good will be needed and substitutes will be found in short term if there is shortages it will affect a couple of quarters but when you get the opportunity to buy at a deep discount to adjusted average trading range it starts to o attractive to target a few and be overweight.

    Timing - hell that is the same old problem.

    What companies / sectors are other looking at that are likely to be oversold or mispriced?


    Last edited by Teddyward: 1032 28/02/20
 
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