I'm a very long-term holder of AVX and a very strong supporter, but describing ATC as 'statistically the best & by a long way' is a pretty meaningless sentiment when it comes to justifying a share price in this market.
Firstly, it's a second line drug, not first line (at least at this stage). That cuts out a lot of the market and a lot of the dollars.
Secondly, it needs to be taken twice a day not once. As ATC will likely be used as part of a cocktail with other drugs, that presents a problem if they are once a day treatments. Might not sound much, but as discussed in some detail here a few months back, once a day is by far the preferred dosage for doctors and patients.
Thirdly, ATC has only been tested in PHase 2b trials and with relatively few subjects (compared to most othr HIV trials). Expectations for Phase 3 are legitimately high, but its not over the line by any stretch.
Fourth, Avexa cannot afford to go far beyond March/April next year. It MUST get money from somewhere and in this environment that will be difficult. Potential partners have them over a barrel because Avexa has to make a deal and therefore has reduced bargaining power.
Lastly, the share price of plenty of other 'less risky' companies are also in the toilet, meaning there's not the attraction to companies like AVX there might have been a year or so back when things were flying high.
Once again, I want to make clear that I am really confident about Avexa, but there's no point looking at this through rose colored glasses and thinking how unfair it all is. There's plenty of reasons AVX has been hit hard.
AVX Price at posting:
13.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
