ubs cut eps. forecast s/p $43.50, page-5

i think that the candle left yesterday was quite bearish and today confirms that movement. I had gone long on friday as it broke north of my allens pitchforks and the weekly stock had kicked up. Yesterdays candle and todays confirmation look quite bearish IMHO. A move lower wouldn't suprise me and i am well short ATM as of today. The monthly stoch is still pointing downward with room to move. I don't know which way its going to go. I think it could go either way. The whole index looks set to move up but the saying is that when everyone is most bullish is the most likely time for a dowturn.

And the other thing is that when brockerage firms put out guesstimations on future prices they are sooo often wrong. It can often be beneficial to take a contrarian appraoch, particularly with the mining companies. Just my observations .. . . have a look at the downgraded that brockerage firms put out on the resource sector just prior to this move - RIO from 28 to 38 dollars and BHP from low 8 to high 12's >35% rises.

Anyway see how you go.

kman