latest brr interview, page-10

I have always believed IO supply will equal demand within 2 years and exceed it after that. I wrote on FMG sit waaaaay back among my very first posts on FMG. I shorted FMG all the way up to 12.90 as felt it could nvere justify a mkt cap of over 33 billion. Advised others to bail out/got pilloried/made big on my shorts/and now hve beenvindicated. Sadly many thoysands of retail investors bought FMG ear the top.
So why have i now gone long on BRM? I read Moz's analysis after attending BRM presentation. I agreed with his analysis(still do) and went long. So why should i hold BRM when i believe that within 3 years (and possibly earlier) supply will exceed demand? it's because i reckon BRM will be viable and profitable at an IO price some 25-30% below current IO contracts. Big assumption is AUD stays within 80-90c range against USD. Because BRM has milllions of tons of DSO IO.... the price can drop and we'll still make plenty profit. My main concern is that management are too focused on proving resources and must switch to reaching a deal whereby the steelmaker(s) contribute towards building rail/road. If i am right and IO price does slide from say Aprl 2011 then it is not all bad. Many potential competitors will never reach production. Right now IO producers have exceptional margins. But it can't/won't last.