i smell fear, page-39

I have calculated another way of proving (without Bubbles) the expected Ords benchmark. One easy way is to take the monthly moving Average growth rate of the Ords since 1875 which is 0.4933%pm and then extrapolate this average from a specified date.

I took the following dates allowing for growth at 0.4933%pm

January 1981 (Ords at 693) puts Ords in November 2008 at 3585.

January 1991 (Ords at 1259.7) puts Ords in November 2008 at 3611.

January 2001 (Ords at 3068.1) puts Ords in November 2008 at 4873

The Ords is currently at 4702. I believe the 2001 figure is in the boundary of the Bubble but even so allowing it in and averaging the 3 figures puts the Ords at around 4023... .