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Ann: SM 71 F4 Completed and F5 Commences, page-39

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badger192

562 Posts.

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17/03/20

11:04

Post #: 43535152
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Originally posted by badger192: ↑

Nice, logical and you deserve every up vote. But I seem to remember old hands saying “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." With this negative mind set, I will answer your points. If I could down vote my own following comments I would.

> Chinese consumption will increase as its economy goes back to production with the reducing impact of the virus

It's true. Reported Chinese new cases are declining. The tide is turning. But they have done this by welding shut doors and other draconian measures. Assuming the numbers are correct, how long will they keep these measures? Assuming that stopping them will put them back to square 1 and infections will rise? The virus is out there. We can slow the infection rate so our hospitals can handle the load but not stop it. A death rate of 1% in a country with 1.4 billion is a scary number. Would you lift quarantine?

>With China back in production the global supply chain will recover and oil consumption from shipping and industry will increase around the world.

And sell to whom? The EU is going into lock down. The US looks like it will follow. Are you personally thinking about buying a new TV or mobile phone? Will you be going on holiday to Italy anytime soon? Skiing in France anyone? Do your co workers talk about buying stuff? Or are we worried about food on the table and whether we will have a job? Sentiment has changed. When the Irish ban pubs you know things just got real.

> US shale production will fall as it is uneconomic at these prices. Indeed the whole shale industry could fail due to debt default.

Russia, Iran and KSA certainly hope so. It is in America best interests to support them. However, giving government cash to non renewable energy could be considered brave in this part of the election cycle. The gov would have to support banks, which then extended credit to companies on the quiet. But let's assume you are right, the current shale companies might default. But so what? They will be bought up for for pennies on the $ by another company. In which case they keep pumping until the infrastructure breaks. ie no near term price increase for oil.

I see this move by Russia as a margin call. By pumping with abandon at this point in time, the world economy cannot soak up all the extra oil, due to China being offline now and EU/ US being on lock down for the next few months. There is only so much storage, which I understand is filling rapidly. Russia has this once in lifetime opportunity to really hurt it's oil competitors in the US. They will twist the knife. As a result I can see oil at $20 or even $10. Even Cara would lose his positivity if this were to happen. The 1st April is the day that KSA said they will increase pumping. Russia has said they too will increase pumping at this date, in a game of chicken. It's also April fools day.

> if there is a better bet in the market than Byron please tell me.

I read a similar line but on the OEL hot copper forum about six months ago and I invested. I thought I was smart. Apparently I am not. We seem to be in dark times. But then again the coldest moment is just before the dawn. I just don't think we are at dawn yet.

Grin

Holy shit that's dark. Anyone sold out yet? If not why not? How am I supposed to retire to a desert island if you won't sell me your BYE shares at knock down prices? This minnow is buying.

Expand

Some links to back my dark view up.

Largest Oil Glut In History Could Force Crude Prices Even Lower
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Largest-Oil-Glut-In-History-Could-Force-Oil-Even-Lower.html

Supertanker Rates Soar 678% As Saudi Arabia Floods The Oil Market
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Supertanker-Rates-Soar-678-As-Saudi-Arabia-Floods-The-Oil-Market.html

Saudi Aramco and Adnoc to raise oil supply in April
https://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/saudi-aramco-and-adnoc-to-raise-oil-supply-in-april-1.991109

BYE Price at posting: 15.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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