The world's biggest deal go through "quicker" during the time of gloom and doom...ofcourse you cannot classify JRV with the Freddie Mac & Fannie Maes of the world but gloom & doom scenarios doesn't mean the end of the JVs / buyouts etc...the only change in these times is that the market dynamics changes...
so now JRV has the goods and CRC has the money...go back 3-4 years and the same deal would have had JRV's hand as the upper hand as the demand of every metal was hitting the roof...in Oct 2008 (i.e. NOW), the scenario has changed in that manner that CRC will be in a better position to negotiate than JRV (infact they already have with their 70-30 or 80-20 split ratios)...in 2004/5 IMO the split ratio would have been something like 65-35 (China Rail / JRV)...but deals will always go through no matter what the market condition is....just depends whether you are the guy with the goods or the guy holding the money bags...
I think if a punter gets "distressed" at all the negativity going on these times (not only JRV but many such plays), they could possibly miss an opportunity of a life time...
Look at the upside / downside with this deal...
UPSIDE - unchartered waters...too good to even imagine
DOWNSIDE - we hit 1c or probably less from here till we find the next punter willing to punt on JRV's deposits...or as some very pessimistic person would look at it and say that the sp will hit the lowest possible (0.1c)...that gives it a downside of 1.4c from here...
Depends on every individual as to how he wants to play this game...the risks / rewards are right in front of you...some of us have waited for years to see it be so "possible"...would be cruel to see them sell out now on some unsubstantiated talks on chat forums to miss this opportunity...I know my position and have spelt it out too many times here...
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