PAA in perspective, page-17

I spoke to a bloke / fellow investor about the situation we find ourselves in and reflected on the CR when the share price was at a high (feels like a life time ago due to most current events).
Leadership would have had a clear vision / realistic outlook with best and worst case as to how long the trial to results would be (fools and naive they are not) and took advantage of the premium price to top up the coffers.
We would not be in such a solid position if that play did not occur. Frankly, I am going to call the genius now.... (oh, controversy)

Elanco SP has been hard hit in the panic sell offs but the fundamentals would be solid - animals need health too. People want/demand a food chain that has healthy animals and that does not put dangerous toxins into their lives. People want healthy pets and foregoing luxuries (and often essentials) to ensure their beloved family member is well. This stuff is the bread and butter of Elanco.
There is buying going on from most of their big investors. Running on gut feel, the sell off seems to be a massive overreaction and I reckon they will bounce back very solidly. They came into the latest crisis in a very strong position.

Conversely, Elli Lilly is not far off its high and that is likely due to US govt talking up big pharma in the COVID19 fight. This also makes sense as people will need increased medical support on all fronts and will also stock up so sales will be booming.

Then there is the Aussie battler (AUD) that has plummeted so any deal from a US to AU would be an attractive prospect on both sides of the pacific.

In my opinion, it would be a brave company to announce a deal in flight right now. However, the second the dust starts to settle, the aforementioned will get back to the business of finding real long term value for their shareholders and to take advantage of anything falling out of the market movements.

So, that could play nicely into PAA with more data over more time = More valuable.

This assumes strong fiscal management in Pharmaust to weather the storm. Pretty confident on this point too as long as the market settles in a reasonable timeframe. CR is not really an option in the immediate future short of options being taken up. (Just my view again)

Noting both the previous Ph II dog and human trials work both showed overwhelming positive impacts (but small sample size) let’s be a little pessimistic and say the results are 75% of dogs and barking slippers (would be a dog if it had a use) show progression free survival with tumours reducing with no other treatment and very little to no side effects after sustained maintenance. With more and more data this story and value proposition gets stronger every day. Now, the interesting thing is the previous human trial for me, as should Elanco step back for now while they rebound (although I think PAA would be a rebound accelerator) it is so bloody cheep, so big pharmaceutical companies would be ripe for a quick grab of something with huge potential. They could then flog off the dog side when they want to do so and drive home the human side.

like MM mentioned, can’t see a single fact that points us away from being on a successful outcome.

While we are still advised by #ScoMo that small gatherings are acceptable, I don’t think the trials are overly impacted as owners and pets can attend appointments. Agree with MM here too as owners are unlikely to have traveled. But even if they got the virus, they would in almost every case, get a friend of family member take Rover to an appointment. New dogs would be in the same position as in stressful times, people turn to their pets as they don’t panic. Their health then becomes even more important. Oh, and this trial is so much cheaper than other methods so if cash is tight, even more reason to sign up! Trial hubs and their scientists/Vets are hygiene heroes so the teams would be looking after themselves with business continuity plans in place.
Obviously the above situation may change but we are well into the trail so I feel confident. Also contingencies would be under consideration to ensure ongoing data gathering with scientific rigour.

The business acumen must be working overtime in the leadership.

Adreamer with a hypothesis