Making sense of the situation, page-43

By "unwilling to pay up when normalcy resumes" I presume you are referring to how the market will price this when the pandemic is over? Two things.

First, I didn't even comment on that. Instead, I made a passing comment on what the market might consider it to be worth right now with all the risks etc ushered in by the pandemic.

Second, turning to future valuations, I think the market will see this differently now. Hitherto, APT was a market darling propelled by a first mover advantage coupled with slick marketing, an excellent in-store presence, and rapidly growing sales volumes. However, once the dust settles in 12 to 24 months, the world will view these kind of stocks very differently IMHO. All those graphs of soaring sales volumes will look very sad with a potentially massive reduction in growth, and the inevitable rise in bad debts will erode EBITDA. Investors looking to make a return when the market settles will no longer see this as a market darling without a blemish on its record. That reputation will be tarnished for years to come IMHO.

I also think that there is a greater risk of regulation occurring now as a result of this, with central banks likely to take a closer look at these forms of unregulated credit, so there is an added risk there. In addition, the massive loss of momentum in APT's global roll out caused by Covid19 is stripping it of its first mover advantage and giving other players a chance to catch up.

Accordingly, I don't see this being a $10 billion stock again for a very long time, if ever.