things to consider, page-31

Fundamentals will out. At the moment UMC's fundamentals have been swamped by the financial meltdown which is a greater short term consideration - but fundamentals will out - and UMC's are outstanding. Timing is always an issue but the company has clearly stated that they have had approaches - when those turn into firm proposals is anyone's guess but four months seems quite reasonable since we were told of this - so year end may well be possible. There is no way the Directors would give the company away at the present capitalisation ($111m - forget the share price) which prices their initial discovery at $1/tonne when any real value must be north of $5/tonne given a delivery deal. We all know that there is further great potential but in these markets such things are almost irrelevant. The greatest threat to us shareholders is an opportunistic takeover bid say at $1.50/2.00. How many would bold for the door in these markets - quite few imo. so the issue is when to buy if you still have any cash - follow the technical side seems the best approach as fundamentals carry no weight in this environment. UMC in fact has ben a great trading stock over the years - the last sell signal was given at $2.40 on the moving averages approach - and the buy has yet to appear. I will alert the site when it does. Afraid do not know how to paste the chart into this system.

On the bears of China I will post as a new string a summary of what the excellent book just out in the USA says. My conclusion is that China will chug along at 9% plus for at least another 5 years, probably 10 - that window will do just nicely for the UMCs of the world wanting to sell iron ore at 5mtap to 10mtpa.