I did enjoy reading you post even though I disagree with lots that you have said. I don't want to hijack the thread by listing all the points but I will make this comment that I believe supports my view that we are living with a serious threat. A friend's daughter lives with her small family in Germany on the border with the Alsace region of France and last night she told her mum here in Australia of the Covid-19 crisis in Strasburg, and of the directive that 'No one aged over 80 in respiratory distress was to present themselves at a hospital and that if needed, 'End of Life' drugs would be brought by ambulance to those who met these criteria. Here is the link to the news paper 'Der Tagesspiegel' for those who can read German.
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/wissen/...n-alarmbericht-ueber-strassburg/25682596.html
I remain hopeful that we will not reach such dire circumstances here in Australia, because as yet we have a low incidence of community transmission with the majority of cases arising from infected travellers coming to this country, the highest number being from the USA and I could comment on that but I won't. The major problem that we have is that we are unable as yet to determine how many asymptomatic cases there are within our population (these are people who have been exposed to the virus and become infected and can infect others but exhibit no outward symptoms of being ill). Any disease eradication program faces significant challenges in verifying the success of the program in the presence of asymptomatic infection. However, I was buoyed yesterday to learn that a simple blood test (fingerprick) has been developed and is available to test for antibodies to the coronavirus. To put it simply, when we get infected with a virus, we make antibody responses, especially against proteins on the surface of the virus and often these antibodies can neutralize the virus and protect us from getting infected again. From an epidemiology POView, it means we can now work out who is infected (both with symptoms and those asymptomatic) and also determine the true infection rate and the true infection or case fatality rate. It’s also very likely that once this immune response establishes that we will have immunity. This will be vital in establishing a health work force that will be immune to the virus ... till it mutates of course and whether it follows the classic influenza path of needing a new vaccine every year or that of the polio vaccine which, as far as I know, has never mutated ... is in the lap of the godsI
I really hope you are right and that the economic recovery is swift but I don't believe we are out of the woods by a long shot as far as the Coronavirus is concerned. I am firmly in the camp of the 'Go fast and Go Hard' approach to shutdown as articulated by Dan Andrews and Gladys B which is why I find the approach of the Fed Gov frustrating in the extreme. What IS IT about haircuts? Please keep posting here Hedg
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