possibly the bottom , page-14

Here's an interesting snapshot...SPX vs PE. Coming out of the longterm secular bull of the 80's and 90's the PE was at premium of around 30. The market peaked and then began to discount the PE. 911 looks to have been the trigger for the recession of the early 2000....price spiked down PE spiked up at the time of the attack....price rebounded but PE did not and mild recession followed.

recovered from recession as the credit bubble is born...PE at premium around 20 but gently falling as price rises into the peak.....continues to gently fall as price comes off after last October....then suddenly 3 weeks ago WHAM the market decides it doesn't want a bar of PE premiums...we are headed to a discount.

As peter pointed out we are currently around 11.5. Assuming (and it's a big assumption) that earnings remain static and the PE was to fall to the bear average low of 7 then the SP 500 still has about 40% to lose.

That may not happen right now. this may be a major low with a big rally followed by a deeper low down the track....if it were to happen at all