Curve may be flattening too quickly now???, page-65

WE do have some statistics on Both the Diamond Princess and the town of Vo in Italy that both have around a 46% asymptomatic infection rate, so from there it is possible to extrapolate some numbers worldwide. No they are not accurate but an indication. Then we have the known percentages of 'mild' cases compared to serious/critical that need hospitalization, so information is firming up all the time.
As a 'numbers person' I would have thought you would be on top of all these figures.

No serious "numbers person" would consider what happens in the confines of a ship or a single town with a population of a certain demographic and traits to be at all representative.

On the contrary, they should be treated as the outliers that they are!


"If you disagree with the current approach, what is your alternative, especially given the virus's high R0 value which indicates very easy spread."

I did not say that I disagree with the current approach; I merely questioned - reasonably, I think, given the high stakes involved - why other approaches attract almost zero discussion/attention.

And your point on the virus's high R-zero value is at the heart of such discussions of alternatives.

I'll present an alternative that I think warrants consideration (but first I want to walk my dog).

But as a starting point for presenting that alternative approach, let me ask you this:

This virus is highly contagious (fact); yet it has - according to the official figures - infected only 4,000-odd people in Australia, and most of those infections were imported.

So the infection rate from intra-community contagion is only something like <2,000 cases.

1. Do you not think that ~2,000 direct infections is not reflective of a high R-Zero transmission mechanism?
2. If the answer to 1.) is yes (it should be), how do you explain the inconsistency between what the lab tests taught us, and what the official stats are telling us?


I'll pick up when I return from morning exercise.