monday trading, page-36

Good news No1, I have a couple of friends called me to express their despeartion yesterday night, end of world, or sort of.

Good news No2, This crash has gone far enough as the great depression of 1929 (I guess many has posted lively chart before)

In almost every media and words from world officials, the current crisis is decribed as only second to the great depression of 1929, if not the worst.

Lookt at the stock market performance between 1929 and now in terms of DJ industrial:

1929 down from high of 381 to low 198 on Nov 13 1929, total 48% down;

Currently DJI down from 14168 high to 7773 intra-day low, down 45%;

Interesting enough, on its way down in 1929, it had a high low of 210 which is 45% from high on Oct 29 1929. Coincidence?

If this crisis is not worse than 1929 great depression, we should see the bottom already.

Volt might not agree with me, but I suspect there is another short and brief down leg after a brief rally, possibly caused by the joint ann from G-7/21 meeting early next week, and rally should be facilitated by another round of rate cuts around global, force people to take extra risk.

If today is not The bottom, another 5% down will make this one worse than the great depression, which is about 7100.

The question is how high can the first leg of uptrend go?

In 1929, it went from 198 low to 263 high on Dec 7, up about 30%.

If history could repeat itself, DJI will be up to 10,000 if today is The bottom.

Otherwise, we could see 9300 as the target top of next up leg.

So far this year, XJO has down 43% form last year's high, very similar to DJI's performance.

Well, if friday is not The bottom, we might see 3400 in coming couple of weeks.

If Friday is the low, we can hope 5100 as the top of next leg up, or we could only see 4500 as the top if AXO has some further down.

I strongly believe the bottom is very near, if no there already.

Get my buy list ready, any suggestion in addition to SPI future?