https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/capital-preservation-afterpay-in-focus
"Our bad scenario makes the following assumptions:40% of existing customers across the group default between April and August 2020, with intensity peaking around May and June;Late fees are cancelled between April and August 2020 as a gesture of goodwill, resulting in zero late fee revenue in the period of maximum bad debt stress;In 2H20 we assume the business is split roughly 50% ANZ, 45% US, and 5% UK which guides are assumptions on the average merchant fee (3.85%) and processing costs (i.e., -1.2%)."
"With a strong return on capital from repeat, repaying customers, a ‘bad scenario’ year which sees 40% of existing customers default in a five month window results in a total return of -30% on the receivables invested capital. If only 30% of customers defaulted in the same period, return on receivables capital improves to -7%.In a normal year, with customer defaults in line with historic trends, return on capital exceeds 30%. If we assume one ‘bad year’ for every seven, Afterpay’s receivables book stands to generate in excess of 20%+ return on capital for a full cycle. We believe this full-cycle return on capital for the receivables book and global network-effect growth opportunity remains a compelling opportunity for long-term investors. As long as the business is sufficiently capitalised to survive the challenging years ahead, the business will continue to thrive thereafter."
-Unless you have something conducive to add to this, take your pessimism elsewhere, OP.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- APT
- Global consumer default wave is just getting started
Global consumer default wave is just getting started, page-8
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 14 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add APT (ASX) to my watchlist
Currently unlisted public company.
The Watchlist
1CG
ONE CLICK GROUP LIMITED
Mark Waller, MD
Mark Waller
MD
Previous Video
Next Video
SPONSORED BY The Market Online