The property bears are saying 40-50% decline in house prices is the bottom of the cycle? Suggesting that it is onward and upward from that point on?
Then by their own admission, that some areas have already seen this correction (the least performing suburbs) you are saying that we have reached the turning point, so would you actually turn from bear to bull in buying property in these areas right now?
Or are you saying the lesser areas will go way beyond that (say -80%?) and the blue chip areas will see -40 to -50% decline when it is a fact that blue chip areas are still moving along nicely with 12 month appreciation values, let alone 36month, 60month, 120month etc etc?
(there are 40 suburbs Australia wide that houses have appreciated above 49% in the last 12 months) source: http://www.investsmart.com.au/property/default.asp?s_cid=domain
Its logical that in the next 12 months there will be another top 40 suburbs in positive territory given the info i'm looking at - do you think you can pick the suburbs better than you picked your share port folio?
(i am still counting through to the 3300th top suburb which appreciated 27% in median house sale prices over 12 months, there are 119,300 suburbs all up on this website, good enough sample set wouldn't you say?)
Can you see the error in your statements? Why should we believe asx traders and investors to pick the property bottom correctly when you can't pick the stock market at the moment, the stock market being your preferred investment strategy?
(BTW: I am up to the 24,000th top suburb that is still in 7% positive territory over last 12 months, searching through this site)
What am i missing here? It's about picking the right suburb correct? A bit easier than picking the right stock at the moment...
They talk about not investing $400k in "the property market" at the moment. You dont invest in "the property market" you invest in a particular house or unit that is in a particular suburb / demographic. On the other hand i wouldn't invest $400k in the "stock market" at the moment. But i would invest $400k in a few selected stocks if i had confidence they would give similar returns AND if the banks would lend that kind of money against shares.
