The SP will recover as macro economic factors improve and shareholders see some sustained, consistent growth in ARR. Here's a very simple table with growth rates of 10%, 12%, 15% and 20% a quarter going forward. The ARR multiple applied will drastically change the SP outcome. I don't believe multiples post CV-19 will return quickly to what we saw in mid-late 2019 so have applied these conservatively starting at 3x for 10% quarterly growth. If costs remain stable we won't see positive cash flow this year under less than 15% quarterly growth. Won't be surprised if we average around 12% and I think that'd be a good result.
Quart Growth Rate Q2FY20 (Jan) Q3FY20 (April) Q4FY20 (July) Q1FY21 (Oct) Q2FY21 (Jan) CAGR ARR multiple MC SP 1 1.1 4.94 5.43 5.98 6.58 7.23 46% 3 22 0.05 2 1.12 4.94 5.53 6.20 6.94 7.77 57% 4 31 0.07 3 1.15 4.94 5.68 6.53 7.51 8.64 75% 5 43 0.10 4 1.2 4.94 5.93 7.11 8.54 10.24 107% 6 61 0.14
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