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poyndexter

40,065 Posts.

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04/04/20

22:00

Post #: 43882590
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Originally posted by madamswer: ↑

“Please tell me any possible way the Australian data and the South Korean data is wrong. It is just not plausible.”

It is wrong to the extent by which the total number of actual cases (i.e, reported cases as well as unreported cases) differs from only the cases that are reported.

You must be innumerate not to understand that.

Take your example of NSW where you calculate the mortality rate as 1.1% (derived, seemingly by dividing 28 deaths by 2,493 cases).

But we know that there are numerous cases that are asymptomatic or just mildly symptomatic that do not get reported/recorded.

So there have been more than 2,493 people infected in NSW.

Ergo, the true mortality rate calculation becomes:

[28 deaths divided by (2,493 reported cases + XYZ number of unreported cases)]

Your mortality rate estimate is based only on the number of cases that come through the medical system; it fails to account for the cases (however many they are) that go unreported and are therefore not documented.

Same thing for all countries.

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Hi Madam

Worldometer Coronavirus have updated their stats table today to include numbers and rates of testing ... it puts things in perspective ... but still, how tests are targeted is important.

Dex
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