this looks a winner but what are the key risks, page-10

There are many good comments in here, which restores some faith in the posters.
Key risk issues with LYC that I see are:
Management – The first issue that Warren Buffet looks at is management – and management of Lynas has a history of profligacy, overpromises and missed dates. Do we really believe every ASX announcement we receive? Or is there a lot of spin?
The RE suite – it is a complex processing plant by virtue of there being 16 different RE’s – and they are going to be producing that in Malaysia, where they would have far better support in Australia – it makes little sense. Against that they will have support from consumers such as Rhodia who will be keen to establish supply outside of China and have experience in this area.
However the issue will be meeting purity specifications, and volumes at spec – which will, I believe, take much longer than they are anticipating and their ramp up schedules are showing. And do not be surprised – this company has missed timetables before.
I hear rumours of some difficulties with ytrrium contamination.
As one poster has noted – selling the whole suite of RE’s – most specifically Cerium. They have already sold 25% of Stage Two, but not yet been able to sell 100% of Stage One – indicates the issue – though in part insulated by the relative values of cerium versus the higher prices of some RE’s that they can sell.
If you read the Paterson’s research it indicates a cash balance at their lows of $7M before they start increasing cash – for the reasons outlined above this will not be correct, in which case they will need to raise additional cash. The Paterson analysis appears to be on the basis that everything goes right – including the immediate Stage Two ramp up. $7M does not leave a lot to go wrong. So do your eps on more shares being on issue.
I do not think issues such as acid consumption – which is actually not that large relative to other processing plants – is that problematic. Nor is transport, and nor is China flooding the market – though suspect they have stockpiles of the lesser RE’s – again, our friend Cerium and some others.
Actually overall at these prices I think LYC is an interesting opportunity – it has raised a lot of capital at much higher prices and is operating in a market with increasing demand that needs to be met from somewhere. So it ticks off some important boxes. But can Lynas deliver?