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“Herd immunity is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through previous infections or vaccination“.

I fail to see how a large number of the population can become immune to the disease when three out of four Americans are currently under lockdown. In New York, there are 130k cases out of a population of 8 million, that small number is actually quite concerning if you’re trying to reach herd immunity.

The virus isn’t going to magically disappear & this is why experts are afraid of a second wave, because the people who didn’t get it the first time (which is a large number of the population) are at risk of contracting the virus & spreading it again. So lifting a lockdown will provide that exact scenario an opportunity of occurring.

The lockdown has essentially been a temporary bandaid and has brought the governments more time to contain the virus, a method which has worked. However with a vaccine forecasted to be 12-18 months away, I can see why governments (who are transparent) are expecting this lockdown to last until Christmas (at the earliest).

My concern has always been the economic impact an extended lockdown will have. 6 months will be manageable, anything longer than that is trouble.

In the long run this will be sweet, but it’s the damage of the short term impact that is as hard as predicting the bottom of a market.