BBUS, page-997

Only the East Coast is really taking this seriously, and at that only New York is actually experiencing measures like what Wuhan, South Korea, Iran and Italy have felt.The bulls calling a peak to this are foolish - thinking perhaps it is isolated to NY primarily and the rest of the states will be ok. Bullish commentators are expecting this to die out within a couple weeks. They make terrible assumptions like comparisons to how many die to the flu (infection and fatality rates MUCH worse for COVID) and point to the reductions in Korea, Italy and Wuhan as evidence of this only lasting a short while, without assessing if the US states have done enough to prevent the spread.

Americans will not take this seriously, and sentiment in middle America is largely driven by Trump (who up until only recently was expecting us to re-open by Easter.

Watch again The Big Short particularly the scenes where Christian Bale freezes his fund due to a belief the financial system is corrupt/illegality/underhanded activity is taking place. If you're in BBUS (disclosure: I am, late to the party and DCA mid 4's) then you need to have the strength of conviction that things WILL get worse than much worse.

Don't expect any big collapses in the near-term but certainly expect to see signs emerge of distressed businesses, citizens and continued virus spread.

Key factor to look for: Rapid spread in non-NY area. Refer to: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ for a better view.
Look at the +ve tests v. total tests conducted. See anything to be worried about?