March quarter predictions, page-31

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miningnut

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14/04/20

08:02

Post #: 44022664
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Originally posted by Dreamer65 ↑

Having experienced multiple plant upgrades and commissioning exercises, I would recommend in being a little cautious with production expectations in the first 2-3 months after such events. Various scenarios play out during commissioning and ultimately optimizing added circuits. For me, looking at the previous threads, with the added circuits coming online and the last commissioning in late february, I would disregard FQ 3 somewhat and examine what occurs in Q4 as this will be the real indicator. Sure, look at Q3 for indicators that suggest improvement aspects, however, in my experience, the first month or two after such events can be turbulent due to flow changes, metallurgical kinetics within circuits and overall, and re-learning phase of what works and what doesn't. Looking at the media releases since ramp ups began, I think your estimates may be somewhat unrealistic at this stage of their life, Not to say they wont be forthcoming in the future as the additional circuits operation is understood and improved.

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A very sensible post that in general I agree with. I am totally basing my figures on what I believe has been shipped during the quarter - these shipping amounts are only estimates for each shipment and I have only been tracking shipments for the last two quarters so I'm not claiming to be infallible but will be interested to see how close I am to the actual amounts for the March quarter.
Maybe we'll get a report today but haven't been any good so far at predicting when the report will come.

NCZ Price at posting: 15.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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