time to buy biota for 6 month hold, page-21

Edh,
With all due respect, your posts are at the other extreme opposing end to Port’s. Notwithstanding my poor view of the bumbling fools on the board, I do not share your extreme pessimism on the products.
First and foremost, investing in an emerging wanabe biotech is always risky business due to the fact that only a fraction of drugs will past through the vigorous clinical trials to commercialisation. Even when the drug is ready for commercialisation there is still a high risk of execution failure. Often it is not the best drug or the best technology that win the day.
I am not into high risks shares or penny dreadful like junior explorers. At any one time, speculative shares like BTA form only a small percentage of my portfolio. I was attracted to BTA at the onset of the legal case when the sp was around 50 cents. My research convinced me (and I still held this view) Relenza is far superior to Tamiflu. I have not come across any situation with zero marketing effort where governments had to scream and drag the manufacturer (GSK) to supply Relenza which was consistent to the pleadings BTA filed in court. At all time, I was never carried away with unbridled exuberance for Peter Cook. In the same token, the strength of the legal case and Relenza’s superiority convinced me an ordinary CEO would have brought home some rewards. Recent events vindicated my cautious optimism. The proverbial pie in the sky (legal case and pandemic stockpile) has evaporated. All that is left is the drugs in development, a pile of cash and Peter Cook’s skill for wealth creation.

If you do your research, you will not be writing off Lani as a lost cause. Having said this, however Lani is still a good 2 or 3 years away and chances for commercial success will exponentially improves if parasites and fools are removed.

Not withstanding dilution by increasing free executive options, majority shareholders are still the mums and dads whose intelligence are constantly insulted by Peter Cook and his mates.

To surmarise, biotech companies are speculative investments and in BTA case, the already slim chance for success is restrained further by Peter Cook’s unblemished record of wealth creation and idiotic decision skills, increasing executive remunerations; shares dilution; evaporated Relenza sales; and expenses for drugs in development.

On the positive side is approximately $40M to $50M of cash (although diminishing and how long will that last in grubby hands is anyone guess); a very promising Lani and HRV which may be ready for commercialisation 2 to 3 years away.

PS:
CPG, I cashed out my equity investment months ago leaving about 25% in active trading but none of it is in speculative companies. At any one time I will research one or at most 2 speculative companies before putting in my money.