just the facts, page-11

U really should consider the likelihood of an AUD sub 0.5 next year as Oz economy moves into meltdown on BOP demolition and CAD/GDP blow-off. 2% forecast fall in rates is a further major downdriver.

BHP immediate support zone 22-24 nigh with hopefully a megabear C-4 rally in the DJ coming up to give some techno-relief .........

Fibonacci 21 year anniversary of the Oct 19, 1987 techno retrace Fri / Mon nite .... mucho grande cosmo event and unless DJ falls 1000 points Mon nite, looks like higher lows are being set for the new S/T uptrend (?) ..... hoping.

BHP 18, 14 or even 12 later depending on how deep the C-5 below DJ 7200 next year IFFFF we move to pure deflation .... my call severe stagflation more likely instead.

BHP low should coincide with AUD/USD low prob by mid next year. Thats when I would be hedging CURRENCY forwards.

Just extrapolating the GORM .... time targets have been cited from the start. Longer term thru to 2011-12, BHP is the only "bank" I trust for my "cash at which bank" but gotta nail the low.

Doubt CMR will keep a plant operating if it runs at a loss.
It will be mothballed. Very valuable plant ahead cos its also the U-plant for mine as sulphides decsion is concentrates only (IMO).

Btw not sure but suspect oxides plant ownership is pro-rata capex so prob 2/3rds CMR's. Nice to think that 3 years down the track we have U-plant sitting there with repurchase of HNC's depreciated third plus an extra circuit added ..... who else?

Cornell C-note debt abt 30 mill ....... manageable and payable in cash for mine. That has been signalled recently.

GT C-note debt 24 mill ...... should end up with 15% of the company to create the incentive IMO

If S/T cash is required, underwritten rights issue to shareholders is the fairest way .... then JP and GT and HNC can take their final significant possies ahead of what this baby is gonna be all about later. I prob would put my hand up too as a subbie.

CMR wont go down for mine ..... its TOO VALUABLE cf its ridiculous 40 mill current market cap. But yeah, this is the time for weak hands to capitulate like they are doing in everything else. The survivors in the XRA will be the next leaders tho. Its all in the TIMING bros .....

PS the demise of the Ni laterite boys and shelving of MANY proposed projects now likely is a blessing in disguise for a primary Co producer.

Sticking to my expectation of a likely HNC "friendly" PARTIAL bid ala AII circa "megabear spot FV" about 160 (200 mill market cap) ... just a punt on which I am prepared to double my holding on with traders as soon as technos confirm reversal.

IMBOOC as always .....

PS any company with a decent prioject but no plant capex committed to this point is now about 5 years behind CMR IMO.

PS2 once stability is reached, CMR bridge will need a serious facelift to attract the surviving global players again.

PS3 once the current megaconjob is over with the USDX, we will have a demolition derby paper burn of all fiat paper against the real stuff ...... atm the yanks are making sure of knocking off the "other" paper fist ahead of their inevitable turn last cab off the rank ......

That was the whole point in the first place of taking out emerging metals producer hedges looking beyond the debt default asset deflation megabear C to the paper burn hyperinflationary megabear D which sees wholesale sector transfer from financials etc to remaining RESOURCES producers. However cos of general economic demise i expect AUD to NOT recover as fast as then CRB rises hence REAL updrivers for ourresources producers thereafter.

Meanwhile more downpressure all round as the Oz property sector next comes under priority concern from here on .....

Good luck

Anyone still wondering about the GORM crystall balling can review chapters 1- 4 clicking on "Olympian" and scrolling back to July 1 2005 posts. More ore less realising ... classic piviotal targets for the DJIA being hit so far.

IMBOOC