I think there is a very good chance of this coupon payment being paid. This is why I brought another 600 at $10 this morning.
If my maths is correct $300m of debt so 300,000 notes at $100. The interest payment is $15m this time around. I can't see that being material enough to the banks to force them to pay it off the debt.
I think the fact AFG are still paying the loans off bodes well for a coupon payment. They made the last one in the middle of the refinancing crisis in May. The Banks didn't force them to channel the payment into debt. So not sure why they would start now.
I think the worst that will happen to AFG in the re-negotiation is they may have to pay a higher rate for the money they have. I can't see the banks sending them under due to the timing of asset sales.
If they do then the up side is that AFGHA is in front of the shares in any wind up.
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