Also didn't include anything about the ~200,000 ARDS cases in the US for which there is no current treatment.
I think BP's expectations for Covid related ARDS are very conservative ( as they note)
0.5% ongoing incidence rate with a 10% market share. If they expect Covid to remain in the population like influenza then a higher rate of incidence can be expected - I think the flu is >5%
With some minor changes in assumptions a significantly higher valuation impact for Covid 19 ARDS can reasonably be achieved.
I understand BPs need to be conservative at this early stage
Bell Potter Daily Pack 16 April 2020, page-15
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