Read both books 'Fooled by Randomness and "The Black Swan"-
very difficult books to read but fascinating. In essence Taleb trades for the majority of time but sets up for "black swan" events in the markets - he is happy to break even if you like and then be set up for the enivetable crashes.
The best example i can give you is this. If a Turkey gets fed 3 times a day and enjoys it's existence for 999 days the general rule of life for the turkey is to be fed by the friendly human race "looking out for it's best interests as a politician would say - on day 1000 it gets it's head lobbed off for Thanksgiving... histroy is a process over 1000 days tells you nothing about what is to happen next. This naive projection of the future from the past can be applied to anyhting!!
His turkey scenario i think best depicts what he beleives is the market in action.
He isn't a prophet of doom - he has traded in this ammer all his life based on a series of cognitive science and business probability theory.
Just an insight - get the books but for one of average intelligence like this poster it takes several reads!!
