Yes closing 13% above the last closing price and the CR price is a terrible outcome.
Mate, tell me, when do you plan on covering?
TC's are in freefall and look like they'll be under US$100 very soon (could they head back sub-US$10 or even zero?). TCs taking a dive is symptomatic of smelters not getting enough con through as mine closures around the world start to distrupt the supply. Supply issues and zero inventory will result in higher zinc prices in the very near term IMO.
So we'll have higher zinc prices, lower TCs and Century running at close to 12mtpa with >50% recoveries. If we break that down, the March C1 costs were 82c and that was with TCs close to $300. With TCs at $200, that would shave another 4.5c off the C1 costs bringing them down to 77.5c (March qtr equivalent).
Further cost reductions will come as the ramp into 12Mtpa is completed and the recoveries stabilize back into the mid-50%s (the slight drop in March was expected). They'll probably come into the low-mid- 70s.
Zinc looks to have based nicely and is trending back up. I wouldn't be surprised to see it back over US$2000 in a few weeks.
When you step back and consider all this the bigger picture is clear: this June quarter will see NCZ cashflow positive.
Costs already are down around 75c while zinc - which is experiencing major supply disruptions - is trending up and fetching around 86c. Even adding in 8c to reach AISC, the company is probably CF+ today.
As TCs fall even further (and there's no sign that the fall is slowing), the margins rapidly expand by 4.5c for every $100 reduction in TCs. If TCs get wiped out entirely (as has happened in the past), it'll strip 13c off the March costs meaning C1 would be <69c. And zinc would logically be a lot higher in that scenario (as it would only eventuate if there were really supply issues) so the company will be highly profitable. Plus it would have $50m in the kitty as a buffer. Very appealing.
If you still believe the company is going zero with a $50m buffer in an environment where the macro is turning in its favour, then power to you. That's your prerogative. But I personally am adding as the odds of zinc trending higher, TCs falling further and overall costs reducing are much higher than the other side of that argument.
Good luck with your short positions. I'm sure you're still in the black but I suspect that won't be the case for long.
