Our company, page-48

Hi @dallasaustin,

IMHO, NRW is interesting to shorters because:

1. Gearing
2. Cyclical industry (mining)

and then

3. Track record for having a volatile revenue (and share price)
4. Perception that it does not have a 'moat'

and currently:

5. Fear that there will be a severe global recession (and maybe geo-political disruption) which will hit the demand for the commodities and services and new projects that in NRW's sphere of operations.


The high level counter-ideas are:

1. The debt is 'moderate' and not a threat currently - as long as revenues don't 'crash' suddenly, and for now at least a lot is already locked in.
2. Pumping of economies should feed straight to demand for commodities and support mining projects
3. NRW is exposed/diversified to civil infrastructure which is also a likely beneficiary of 'pumping'

and

4. NRW is strategically stronger due to larger scale and diversification which the market had not yet recognised when COVID hit.
5. NRW did some GCY related (cash) write-downs which may well be reversed soon (I mention this detail only because it may well be material in size).

Many longer term investors are waiting until the smoke clears and it is clear which way it is going (they are saying so on channels like Livewire).

Cheers,
pb