Ann: Yibin Tianyi Withdraw FIRB Application, page-327

Few people got nothing better to do on their Saturday night. haha.

Threads in shambles. lol.
Never a dull crowd on Ye old avz threads.

-crusted on avz longs who can't be swayed in opinion
-resident pests gleaning in avz's forthcoming
-genuinely knowledgeable posters (scarps) trying to get some kind a balanced conversation going
-few 1 stop shoppers dropping in after 140 odd posts wondering what commotion is happening this week.

seeing as how there are a few opinions floating about I might as well toss mine in the ring as along from 2017 but have bought and sold successfully here and would consider myself a balanced view.

The announcement;
did yibin get the impression it would be rejected or did they walk?

-ntu rejection may have set precedence of foreign investment
-if yibin wanted to walk it's bizarre they didn't walk earlier. I.e. why did the application take so long. my understanding is it was held up on the FIRB's end thus the argument of yibin seeing the DFS and bailing is low.
-if a multibillion company couldn't do rough calcs for the DFS before proposing to invest 14m then wth are they doing in business. IMV no ones punts without doing due diligence.
-I don't think yibin bailed because of dfs
-I do think there's something else to it though
-we'll know in a months time if they walked dependent on further investment and offtake. if they continue to deal with avz highly likely that the statement released is accurate. if they disappear into the distance then definitely something funny going on.

is the announcement good or is it bad?
-market won't like it, shareprice will go down unless there's left field positive news
-it's bad if avz doesn't have a plan b. albeit a bad deal to donate 11% for 14m it's implications were good. yibin is the real deal and the cash bought them time.

is avz dead and buried?
lol, no. between the 3.6m or so they raise the options which will be exercised unless people want to let them go to zero and be worth nothing, the cash on hand and the 1m loan they've got 6 months of cash.

agreeing with scarpa the ntu announcement seems more cut and dry however for me the real news story is what unfolds over the next week or so. FIRB rejecting more deals, or other Chinese CO's withdrawing should be quite telling as to what exactly went on here but also some much wider and worrying concerns for all investors in all stocks.

Everyone can harp on about how great it is to cut China off but I'm sorry you're an idiot if you think that because when your economy is built on exports and your end users are predominantly China you're just biting the hand that feeds you. whilst I'm patriotic and wish Australia done more to support Australia - this is a counter intuitive move. America has a much better outlook in breaking from China as their economy has the ability to supports it and be relatively self sustainable.

Australia has always been an exporter and mining has always underpinned most of the economy. Rejecting a few pissant investments in a rare earth mob and "potentially" rejecting a lith deposit in DRC is only going to have the complete opposite effect. If they continue down this path it has damning affects for ALL the economy as Australia says were not open for business.

for the economies sake I actually hope these are outliers for all the wrong reasons and avz are lying and this is actually terrible.

for avz's sake I hope the firb continues to reject things as it should indicate that the announcement is in fact transparent of the situation.

also: for the ones blowing their trumpets about how right. most have been calling a sell for 6months. in that time you could have doubled your money twice. and it trades higher than it did when making those calls. so you were wrong before and maybe right now. once in 6 months isnt a good record.

FWIW heard the same gooses back in 2017 when most of us rode the stock 1000%. I also heard similar gooses calling $1 prices when it was going down 80%. they're clowns on both sides of the scales. Important to take profits when they appear. also important to preserve capital when it demands.

but as I've said: timing in the market over time in the market. If you're not prepared to have 25% fluctuations week to week get out the spec game.

your money, make your own calls, off your own research and live with it.I am actually shocked at how wide reaching this news has been. Seems that avz has passionate hate and love.

all I know is it's Saturday, Anzac Day and I feel like a beer. I'll worry about all this when the stocks are trading and these conversations actually mean something.

until then let the squabbling continue.

SF2TH