Sorry, I've just read this over and it's a bit of a rant. Here goes, anyway.
Frankie, I congratulate you on picking the fall on the ASX as long ago as '07, and I'll imagine you congratulating ME, because I picked it, too. However, I'd like to know how you arrived at your 12-month target of 2000 points - it seems to be based not on any kind of quantitative analysis but on a belief that economies are motivated solely by fear: "It's just halved so it can halve again." I can't agree. As any scientist will tell you, the past is the key to the future - except when it isn't. What about greed? Self-preservation? Common sense even? What about the urbanisation of China? People on HC often refer to the market as though it's a living thing, disussing what it "wants" and how it won't "be denied". Does it want it's own destruction? In other words, do we? I don't think so.
Everybody KNOWS the situation and all the worst predictions. We're all aware that the markets have experienced some terrifying falls over the past weeks and that people are feeling nervous, as indicated by the LIBOR, futures, etc. Simply pointing these things out isn't really a strong argument for further declines. In fact, it's the opposite - the less new info I hear the more I'm confident that the "kablooie" is all priced into the market, including the inevitable folding of some small companies (likely including the one I work for).
We still have problems to overcome (CDS!) but before we reached the levels you are talking about, society will have returned to feudalism and the barter system. Then we'll all be stuffed, except for winkinatcha, who has been well prepared by his mum and dad :) Honestly, I don't buy it. We're talking about a good old-fashioned recession here, not a nuclear winter. Everybody needs to go outside, take a big breath, and say: "We're having a recession and everything's going to be ok."
Common sense (not to mention just about every every analyst, trader, moonwatcher, astrologist and entrail reader on HC) says that stockmarkets are now where they need to be, or are only one more drop away - then sideways for a time, then inevitably up. Or would you prefer to keep selling and make the professional downtraders rich? Actualy, some people always manage to get rich, whatever the situation. Again, congratulations Frankie.
