1) First and foremost, this market is treacherous. Please be careful with use of leveraged products as a pullback could seriously undermine your wealth.
2) I regard the healthcare sector as one of the few “relatively safe harbours” in these times, especially now Bernie Sanders will not be handing out free medications after the next US Presidential race. Regardless of whether we are in a severe economic downturn or an economic boom, i predict the same number of paediatric bone marrow transplants will occur as this is prioritised expenditure. Demand for our GVHD therapies is therefore relatively bombproof and demand inelastic, although we may get pushback if we are too aggressive with our pricing...particularly outside the US. Silviu has always referenced the pharmacoeconomic benefits of our treatments...that is to say the days saved in ICU which justifies the outlay to both health authorities and insurance companies monitoring disbursements. Likewise, if Revascor shows efficacy for Congestive Heart Failure then there will be huge savings in government expenditure on hospitalisations so there will always be funds to pay for its use .
3) We have enjoyed a healthy pullback in the share price. I think the parasitic shorters, who appear like buzzards in the sky every time there is an announcement, will soon realise that this stock is no longer their plaything. As we draw ever closer to final read outs on our blockbuster trials, the binary outcomes of phase three data or partnership announcements will decide our fate as shareholders, not their pathetic campaign of misinformation and inappropriately named threads designed to unnerve unsophisticated investors. Do they really want to hang around for the headline results of the heart trial, back pain or the Covid 19/ARDS trial. Do these punks really feel that lucky ?
4) For those of you chanting the mantra, that the only data that is meaningful for regulatory approval , is that from a properly powered blinded randomised controlled clinical trial, I would have to agree. I was taught long ago that the referee, in this case the FDA, is all powerful... and history is littered with unscrupulous biotechs manipulating single armed studies trying to manipulate investors. Having said that, the anecdotal evidence of compassionate use of mesenchymal cells in over 200 patients in China as well as the data from Mount Sinai, combined with a number of small RCT studies ...leaves me in little doubt of our efficacy in treating ARDS.....backed up by compelling binomial probability statistics which almost disprove completely accusations that we could be cherry picking patients or deluding ourselves with false positive information. It is my understanding that our initial patients at Mount Sinai received “ salvage therapy”...they were the “no hopers”...not responding to any best available therapies. Their subsequent recovery is one thing...but their discharge times (median 10 days) after receiving mechanical ventilation...is nothing short of miraculous.
5) i am amazed that no one really comments on certain massive opportunities for our therapies in treating those over 65 years old especially those with multiple existing health conditions. These patients are more or less excluded from most invasive procedures as they have only a 3% chance of survival and their quality of life post coming off a ventilator is poor. Mortality rates for over 65’s account for 85% of Covid 19 victims. They do not show up properly in the Mount Sinai figures because they are dying in their droves at nursing homes and left out of the statistics...so please no more lecturing by certain posters on the real percentage fatality rates. Peoples grandparents deserve a life as much as the rest of us....and our treatment with its excellent proven safety profile contrasts with the appalling side effects of many alternative therapies.
5) I am sad to have to warn you that we cant all own the IP for allogenic mesenchymal stem cell therapies. Some of the younger quoted upstarts touting their wares in the stem cell space, are in for a rude shock...they will most likely be sued as soon as they have proven efficacy in phase three trials. What’s the point of suing them before ? You know who you are. I will not say more because the appropriate place for these discussion is the court room . As regards IP, Silvi Itescu has built multiple layers of IP protection for shareholders , from composition of matter, diagnostic biomarkers to proprietary media to harvest the cells. I sometimes laugh when “experts” in peer reviewed studies continue to assert statements which Mesoblast has disproven in the field for many years. Every time i look up the prospects of a stem cell competitor i am amazed how far behind they are in their clinical trials ...Mesoblast is the world leader in the allogenic space...and the economics and practicalities of autologous treatments just don't work fo me.
7) What a position to be in. Mesoblast has an NIH funded phase 2/3 trial immediately in prospect. Judging by the protocols of other approved trials for Covid 19/ARDS, there is every likelihood of interim read outs at 28 days for the first third of patients enrolled. If the CBS news article is to be believed the patient study has now been expanded to 300 patients as other hospitals have expressed interesting in participation. The participation of the NIH is massively reassuring because the results will be impossible to disregard.
8) Our clinical trial results in GVHD have in my opinion, continuously outperformed single monoclonal antibody therapies or IL6 blockers . If Mesoblast can prove that their treatment is even more effective for less severe patients with pneumonia,who are not yet ventilated, the whole world will heave a huge sigh of relief. From the limited phase 2 trial data on COPD we showed great efficacy in quickly reducing the relevant bio markers, such as CRP which are a feature of Covid 19. The earlier our treatment is effective the more it can compete in the anti viral space which will massively boost its pharmacoeconomic benefit and may allow us to become the “gold standard” treatment .
9) We are due a 4C either tomorrow, or the day after. At last we can all get a more detailed update from the Company. I am quietly confident and have just bought another 20,000 shares in the last hour. Good luck and please do not rely on the information provided when making an investment decision. OP
MSB Price at posting:
$3.17 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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