Hotdog, thanks for this post, you clearly have studied this a lot and it's hard to disagree with you here.
On the BDI, is that not a day rate for the ship, not a per tonne rate? I see that DRYS is listed and its chart has gone down about as much as the BDI.
I don't see how trade could have dropped off that much unless we are in a depression already with vastly shrunken world trade, especially bulk trade which this index measures.
I guess the best way to go for medium-term investment now is shorting sp indexes for the next few years.
