analysis of dow last 115 years and outlook v2

Hi All,

There seems to be a growing acceptance that we're looking at a major correction of not just the past 5 years but the past 30-40 years bull market. As discussed on an earlier thread today, I believe this is all just a function of population demographics (in particular baby boomers retiring).

Anyway, I though that what we need to be looking at to see the big picture is not just a chart of the last 30-40 years but in fact the last 100 years+ to identify the price channels the Dow has been working within. Then, by considering these channels, what's technically most probable for the future. Other western markets you would expect would follow.

I've taken a log chart of the Dow (a normal price chart would be meaningless over this period) and marked on it the upward and downward trending price channels it seems to have been using over 115 years. Then, based on the channels drawn, added in what I consider most likely technically in the future.

Though its not a pretty picture, I think its realistic given both the fundamentals (changing population demographics) and the technicals (price moves to date and the channels indicated). Many may suggest that China will keep growing and change the outcome, however the channels IMO suggest it will not (for whatever reason).

The net result is I'm guessing ultimately about a 4,000 low on the Dow and then (after a quick rally to about 8,000) we fall and overall go sideways into about 2025 as the boomers retire, at which time the "baby busters" begin investing.

If you compare the channel testing/price action that I think is most probable you'll notice its very similar to post-1929. The reason for this is that in both cases its looks like we'll fall 2 channels, and the price action post-1929 and which I've added is fairly typical for this type of fall.

Anyway here's the chart. Would appreciate any comments and debate, whether good or bad.